In case you didn’t already know, there is an alternative way to study the game of baseball. The concept is called sabermetrics or, more commonly known as, Moneyball. Sabermetrics was brought into existence by Bill James, a baseball statistician and historian. However, Billy Beane, general manager of the Oakland A's took James' statistic concept and implemented it into the A's organization. Beane’s idea was to focus on the statistics that are more beneficial to the team rather than the individual. For example, “For batters, Beane substituted average, home runs, and runs batted in with a player’s slugging percentage and on-base percentage to determine offensive value to the team. For pitchers, Beane focused on walks, strikeouts, and home runs”.2 Beane’s concept eliminated certain plays, such as bunting and stealing, because they do not positively affect the amount of runs scored.
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| Billy Beane |
The Moneyball concept relies on numbers to find more team-oriented players to improve the team’s winning percentage. For a small market team, like the A’s, who have a payroll that cannot compete with other teams in the league, the concept boosted efficiency related to the overall dollars. The main issue is that the Oakland A’s simply did not have as much cap space (dollars) to work with as compared to the other teams.
The Oakland A’s have been a competitive team since implementing this method in 1997. They made it to the postseason eight times from 2000-2014. However, if you take a closer look at these teams during this time span, you will see they either have a MVP (Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada), Cy Young winner (Barry Zito), or a Rookie of the Year (Bobby Crosby, Huston Street). Giambi and Tejada were gone the next year and Crosby and Street left when they were available for free agency. Zito was the only one who stayed the others left to follow the money.
So why don’t we see large market teams using the Moneyball concept? Why don’t teams use this strategy to find those diamonds in the rough, the ones that are not as flashy, but do most everything right? The answer is simple, they don’t need to and better yet, that’s not their best option. Why wait to build a team with the Moneyball method and hope to find a gold nugget flowing through when you can just go out and buy the top players. The top tier teams can afford to spend big time money on big time players and there’s a reason those players are getting the big time contract deals - statistically, they make a team better. There’s no way around it, players with a higher average, more RBIs, and more home runs are simply going to produce more runs scored which produce more wins.
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| Jason Giambi photocred: rantsports.com |
Another important statistic is on-base percentage, however, teams must have players who can hit or manufacture a run by stealing or bunting. “Sabermetrics is a science, which means that it follows the scientific method. Conclusions must be based on evidence and logic, and any conclusions can be re-evaluated or overturned if new, contradictory, evidence turns up.”1 Predicting baseball outcomes by using the scientific method is about the same as predicting the weather. Sometimes it will work, but most of the time the weather will throw you a curveball (pun intended) and put you on your heels.
Final thought, the Moneyball concept is a scientific way to play the game of baseball. It works, there’s no doubt about it, but can it take a team like the Oakland A’s to the World Series? No. The Oakland A’s have not reached or won a World Series while gambling on the Moneyball concept. Moneyball alone will not get them where they want to go, but it can lead them in the right direction to improving their team. A major issue is that great players usually don’t go unseen, and every organization needs few great players as well as baseball savvyness to win a World Series.
Billy Beane has made the Oakland A’s a competitive organization with what little he has. To be able to get the quality players they need to be successful, the Oakland A’s must find a way to generate revenue to make Oakland a place where players want to come and stay to play baseball. Perhaps the faults lie within the higher ups in the organization?
References:
1Birnbaum, P. (n.d.). A Guide to Sabermetric Research: Asking the Right Questions. Retrieved February 09, 2017, from http://sabr.org/sabermetrics/asking-right-questions
2Porreca, R. P. (2016, August 17). General Managers and the Importance of Using Analytics. Retrieved February 09, 2017, from http://thesportjournal.org/article/general-managers-and-the-importance-of-using-analytics/
